Watchdog Bot · Historical Signal
Did the DM+LD confluence call the cycles?
Every day from 2021-07-05 to today, the Watchdog bot asks the same three questions: is the trend up (SMA), are dumb-money flows extreme (DM), is liquidity dancing (LD)? When all three agree it goes to BTC, otherwise to CASH. Hover the chart to see what it said on any given day.
How to read this
The chart shows BTC price (white line) overlaid on the bot's signal state. Green shading = bot was holding BTC. Grey shading = bot was in CASH. Yellow vertical lines mark cycle anchors (tops, bottoms, halving) so you can see at a glance whether the bot got the structure right or wrong each time.
The transitions counter shows how often the bot switched sides — the lower this number, the less the bot is whipsawing. Out of 1753 days, the bot held BTC about 43% of the time. The rest of the time it sat in cash, missing some upside in exchange for missing every major drawdown.
This is the same signal that drives the live waechter bot on the /bots page. The exact rule stays in the protected box; the daily output is fully public.