The BotLab

We test the wild stuff.

Lunar cycles. Trump tweets. Halving countdowns. Reddit sentiment. Hash rate signals. The BotLab is where we test 23 deliberately weird trading ideas on 6 years of real Bitcoin data — every rule, every fee, every drawdown. Most fail spectacularly. A few surprise us. What survived is on /bots →

Strategies tested

Beat HODL over 8y

Profitable, lost to HODL

Busted

⚠Historical backtests only — not live trading. Numbers were re-audited on 2026-04-18 against the 8-year data. Many earlier claims were inflated; we corrected them openly. A good backtest is necessary but not sufficient — see live ≠ backtest.

Every backtest on this site is a bet on regime continuity. We test on the past — the future is a regime draw we haven't fully observed. Walk-forward catches what we've seen; it cannot catch what hasn't happened yet. Why this matters →

How our three research stages fit together

🧪 BotLab (here)

Our experimental playground. Weird, creative, sometimes ridiculous strategy ideas — backtested honestly. Most never left the lab. This is where curiosity lives.

🤖 /bots

The survivors. Strategies that passed every filter and now run live — on real capital or paper-tracked daily. Multi-metric panels, honest tiers, open caveats.

💀 /post-mortems

Bots we killed in production. Retired with date, root cause, and lesson. Different from the Lab — these actually went live before we pulled the plug.

Real code, real data

Every backtest is a real Python script running on 6 years of actual Bitcoin prices. No fake numbers, no cherry-picked charts, no Excel guesswork.

Fully transparent rules

You see the exact entry/exit rules, parameters, and data source for every strategy. No black boxes. The code is what it claims to be.

The survivors moved to /bots

Most strategies in this archive failed or were too fragile to promote. A few (Watchdog-style cycle filter, momentum rotation) passed multiple checks and now run on real or paper capital.

How we backtest

Why these numbers actually mean something

Most backtests online are garbage. Cherry-picked timeframes, missing fees, curve-fit parameters, no validation. Here's what we do differently.

6 years of real data

Every backtest runs on 2,296 days of actual BTC/USD prices from CryptoCompare — Jan 2020 to today. That includes the 2020 COVID crash, the 2021 bull run, the 2022 bear market (-77%), and the 2024 rally.

Real trading fees included

0.1% per trade (Bybit spot taker fee). Every buy. Every sell. Applied in the order they happen. This is why our Scalper bot has a 65% win rate and still loses money — fees eat the edge.

Multiple market cycles

A strategy that only works in a bull market isn't a strategy. Our 6-year window forces every bot through both euphoria and despair. Strategies that collapse in bear markets get exposed.

Day-by-day equity tracking

We don't just report the final number. Every card shows the real portfolio value on every single day — including drawdowns, flat cash periods, and recoveries. No smoothing, no interpolation.

Parameter robustness tests

We don't just run one parameter set. We test 5-10 variants per bot. If a strategy only works with one specific setting (fragile), we label it. Only strategies that work across many settings (robust) earn trust.

We publish our failures

When our "gold nugget" Volume Spike bot went from +45% to -27% after extending the data, we wrote an article about it. Overfitting is the silent killer of backtests. We name it.

Typical crypto backtest vs. BotLab backtest

❌ What you usually see

• Cherry-picked 6-month bull market window
• No trading fees included
• One parameter set that "just happens to work"
• Final number only, no equity curve
• Only winners shown, losers hidden
• No code, no data source, no validation
• "Trust me bro"

✅ What we do

• 6 years of data across all market conditions
• 0.1% fee per trade, compounded correctly
• 5-10 parameter variants tested for robustness
• Day-by-day equity curve visible on every card
• All 23 bots shown, including the failures
• Open source Python framework, public data
• "Here's the code. Run it yourself."

Read the full methodology article

Still not perfect: 6 years of data captures one major Bitcoin cycle. True statistical significance would require decades. Even a rigorous backtest is necessary but not sufficient — which is why only a handful of these strategies ever graduated to live trading on our /bots page.

BotLab Leaderboard

Live rankings

#	Bot	Return	Win Rate	Trades	Max DD	Robust
🥇	⏳ The Halving Bot Buy 6 months before halving, sell 12 months after. +91%.	+1706.3%	100%	2(~1/3yr)	-52.5%	100%
🥈	🔄 The Contrarian Does the OPPOSITE of what RSI says. And it works.	+710.9%	55.6%	9(~1/1yr)	-64.2%	100%
🥉	📆 The Seasonality Bot Sell in May? We tested crypto seasonality.	+680.7%	71.4%	7(~1/1yr)	-74.6%	100%
4	🐢 The Turtle Classic Donchian channel breakout — the original turtle trading	+265%	47.4%	95(~1/mo)	-51.3%	100%
5	😱 The Panic Buyer Buys when everyone screams SELL	+235.9%	50%	4(~1/2yr)	-71.9%	60%
6	🏃 The Momentum Bot Rides winning streaks, exits on first red day	+225%	35.9%	128(~1/mo)	-28.4%	83%
7	🧬 The Entropy Bot Information theory meets Bitcoin. Fails honest validation.	+123.5%	58.6%	29(~1/3mo)	-37.7%	9%
8	📉 The RSI Bot The most popular indicator. Does it actually work?	+46.5%	66.7%	9(~1/1yr)	0%	—
9	📈 The Funding Rate Bot Trades against the crowd when leverage gets extreme	+32.9%	50%	2(~1/1yr)	-49.6%	—
10	🐋 The Whale Watcher Follows the smart money on-chain	+28.8%	60%	5(~1/6mo)	-28%	100%
11	🌕 The Lunatic Full moon buy, new moon sell. Yes, really.	+17.3%	51.3%	78(~1/mo)	-80.8%	—
12	🇺🇸 The Trump Trader Trades when the president tweets	+12.7%	100%	1(~1/1yr)	-49.6%	100%
13	⛏️ The Hash Rate Bot Follow the miners — they know something you don't	+8.3%	36.8%	19(~1/2mo)	-33%	—
14	🐝 The Hive Mind Follows Reddit sentiment	+2.6%	50%	4(~1/4mo)	-28.5%	38%
15	🌪️ The Volatility Trader Only trades when volatility explodes — bigger swings, bigger profits	-2.3%	62.5%	72(~1/mo)	-52.5%	—
16	🌀 The Fibonacci Bot Sacred geometry or trader astrology? We tested it.	-4.3%	80%	15(~1/5mo)	-77.3%	—
17	🔊 The Volume Spike Buys when volume explodes and price dips — Wyckoff accumulation	-9.2%	48.6%	37(~1/2mo)	-53.6%	100%
18	🌊 The Calm Before Storm Buys when volatility is at its lowest — the calm before the explosion	-16.3%	44.4%	18(~1/4mo)	-53.6%	78%
19	🥧 The Pi Bot Trading with mathematical constants. The ultimate placebo.	-20.3%	51%	49(~1/2mo)	-34.2%	17%
20	⚡ The Scalper Buys every dip, sells every bounce. Speed kills.	-34.4%	68.9%	177(~1/mo)	-68.1%	—
21	📅 The Weekender Monday buy, Friday sell. Every week.	-46%	51.5%	328(~1/mo)	-76.6%	—
22	↔️ The Divergence Bot When price and sentiment disagree, something is about to happen	-50.7%	50%	4(~1/1yr)	-58.8%	60%
23	📊 The VWAP Bot Buys below the 20-day average, sells above	-77.3%	71.9%	57(~1/2mo)	-86.7%	—

The full archive

All 23 backtested strategies

Sorted by return. Every card includes the full rule set and equity curve. Historical backtests — not currently trading.

⏳

The Halving Bot

Buy 6 months before halving, sell 12 months after. +91%.

BacktestWorks!

BTCJan 2020~1 every 39 months

⏳ Bitcoin halving schedule + daily pricesBacktest since Jan 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$220,415.62

Jan 20Today

+1706.3%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

100%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 39 months)?

2 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 39 months.

-52.5%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

100%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Deep-dive audit 2026-04-18 — max drawdown corrected via trade-replay (the default lab backtester only tracks equity in cash periods, masking true drawdown during open positions). Still the strongest pattern in the lab: +1,706% over 8 years (vs HODL +473%) with a real max drawdown of only -52.5% — materially better than HODL's -77%. Two trades in 8 years: buy ~6 months before each halving, sell ~12 months after. Parameter robust: all 6 tested 'months before' values (3-8 months) beat HODL. Caveat — only 4 observed halvings in all of Bitcoin history; the pattern has n=4 evidence behind it. High confidence in past hindsight, low sample size for future projection. Also vulnerable to the induction problem: if the halving-as-bull-catalyst relationship was an artifact of Bitcoin's early growth phase, it may weaken as the asset matures. Legit edge historically; treat as suggestive rather than guaranteed going forward.

🔄

The Contrarian

Does the OPPOSITE of what RSI says. And it works.

BacktestWorks!

BTCJan 2020~1 every 9 months

🔄 RSI(14) inverted signals (calculated locally)Backtest since Jan 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$55,387.48

Jan 20Today

+710.9%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

55.6%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 9 months)?

9 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 9 months.

-64.2%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

100%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Deep-dive audit 2026-04-18 — max drawdown corrected via trade-replay (the default lab backtester only tracks equity in cash periods, masking true drawdown during open positions). Beats HODL on both metrics over 8y: +711% vs +473% return, and -64% max DD vs HODL's -77%. Total Calmar 11.1 vs HODL 6.1 — real risk-adjusted improvement. RSI-based mean reversion with standard 14/70/30 parameters. Only 11 trades — low turnover means low fee bleed. The strategy buys when RSI < 30 (oversold) and sells when RSI > 70 (overbought). Meta-bias caveat applies: relies on mean reversion persisting in future BTC regimes, which is not guaranteed if BTC transitions to a lower-volatility mature asset phase. Legit historical edge on the data we have.

📆

The Seasonality Bot

Sell in May? We tested crypto seasonality.

BacktestUnclear

BTCJan 2020~1 every 11 months

📆 Calendar-based (no external data)Backtest since Jan 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$158,276.59

Jan 20Today

+680.7%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

71.4%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 11 months)?

7 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 11 months.

-74.6%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

100%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Deep-dive audit 2026-04-18 — max drawdown corrected via trade-replay (the default lab backtester only tracks equity in cash periods, masking true drawdown during open positions). Returns beat HODL (+681% vs +473%) but max drawdown is -74.6% — essentially the same as HODL's -77%. Total Calmar only marginally better than HODL (9.1 vs 6.1). The 'sell in May' calendar pattern (bull Oct-Apr / bear May-Sep) captures the observed 2018-2026 regime but offers little risk-adjusted protection. 9 trades in 8 years. Previously claimed +1,483% (inflated 2x) has been corrected to +681%. Downgraded from WORKS to INCONCLUSIVE: yes, it beat HODL absolutely, but nearly identical pain with marginal Calmar uplift. Combined with the induction problem (calendar patterns are notoriously regime-sensitive), this is not a strong live candidate.

🐢

The Turtle

Classic Donchian channel breakout — the original turtle trading

BacktestUnclear

BTCJan 2020~1/month

📊 BTC daily OHLCV (CryptoCompare, free)Backtest since Jan 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$20,224.37

Jan 20Today

+265%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

47.4%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1/month)?

95 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2020. Frequency: ~1/month.

-51.3%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

100%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. Profitable (+265%) but loses to HODL (+473%) over 8y. Previous claim +102% was under-reported. 118 trades. Works but not an edge vs passive holding. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

😱

The Panic Buyer

Buys when everyone screams SELL

BacktestUnclear

BTCJan 2020~1 every 20 months

📊 Fear & Greed API (alternative.me)Backtest since Jan 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$49,100

Jan 20Today

+235.9%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

50%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 20 months)?

4 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 20 months.

-71.9%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

60%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. Profitable +236% but loses to HODL +473%. Previous claim +391% was inflated. 5 trades, infrequent contrarian signal. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

🏃

The Momentum Bot

Rides winning streaks, exits on first red day

BacktestUnclear

BTCJan 2020~1/month

📊 BTC daily prices (CryptoCompare, free)Backtest since Jan 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$22,996.69

Jan 20Today

+225%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

35.9%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

128

Trades (~1/month)?

128 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2020. Frequency: ~1/month.

-28.4%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

83%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. Profitable +225% but loses to HODL +473%. Previous claim +130% under-reported. 170 trades — high turnover eats the edge. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

🧬

The Entropy Bot

Information theory meets Bitcoin. Fails honest validation.

BacktestBusted

BTCMay 2020~1 every 3 months

🧬 Shannon entropy from daily returns (calculated locally)Backtest since May 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$21,754.15

May 20Today

+123.5%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

58.6%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 3 months)?

29 completed round-trip trades since May 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 3 months.

-37.7%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. Loses to HODL by 350 percentage points (+123% vs +473%). Walk-forward 1/3. Parameter robustness: only 4/45 variants beat HODL. Original BREAKTHROUGH claim was based on a too-short window. Stays as a case study in 'novel concept ≠ real edge'. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

📉

The RSI Bot

The most popular indicator. Does it actually work?

BacktestBusted

BTCMar 2020~1 every 8 months

📉 RSI calculated from daily prices (free)Backtest since Mar 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$14,645.32

Mar 20Today

+46.5%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

66.7%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 8 months)?

9 completed round-trip trades since Mar 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 8 months.

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

SURPRISING — RSI performed much better over 6 years (+46.5%) than over 16 months (+0.2%). The 2020-2021 bull market produced strong RSI signals. Still underperforms HODL (+931%), but not the failure we expected. RSI works better in strong trends than in choppy markets.

📈

The Funding Rate Bot

Trades against the crowd when leverage gets extreme

BacktestBusted

BTCJan 2024~1 every 15 months

📈 Bybit API (free, real-time funding rates)Backtest since Jan 2024 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$12,788.5

Jan 24Today

+32.9%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

50%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 15 months)?

2 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2024. Frequency: ~1 every 15 months.

-49.6%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. +33% vs HODL +473% — technically profitable but massively underperforms. Only 2 trades in 8 years — not enough signal density for the strategy to matter. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

🐋

The Whale Watcher

Follows the smart money on-chain

BacktestBusted

BTCJan 2024~1 every 6 months

⛓️ Blockchain.com API + Mempool.space (both free)Backtest since Jan 2024 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$12,878.59

Jan 24Today

+28.8%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

60%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 6 months)?

5 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2024. Frequency: ~1 every 6 months.

-28%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

100%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. +29% vs HODL +473%. Number matches previous claim but context changes everything on a longer window — HODL wins by 15x. 5 trades. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

🌕

The Lunatic

Full moon buy, new moon sell. Yes, really.

BacktestBusted

BTCJan 2020~1/month

🌕 NASA lunar data (PyEphem)Backtest since Jan 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$31,479.07

Jan 20Today

+17.3%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

51.3%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1/month)?

78 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2020. Frequency: ~1/month.

-80.8%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. +17% over 8y vs HODL +473%. Previous claim +215% was INFLATED by 12x — the lunar cycle does NOT produce the edge claimed. 103 trades, fee drag. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

🇺🇸

The Trump Trader

Trades when the president tweets

BacktestBusted

BTCJan 2025~1 every 17 months

📡 GDELT News API (free, 3B+ articles)Backtest since Jan 2025 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$10,846.24

Jan 25Today

+12.7%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

100%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 17 months)?

1 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2025. Frequency: ~1 every 17 months.

-49.6%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

100%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. +13% vs HODL +473%. 1 trade signal in 8 years. Political tweets don't produce a tradeable edge on this data. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

⛏️

The Hash Rate Bot

Follow the miners — they know something you don't

BacktestBusted

BTCJan 2024~1 every 2 months

⛏️ Blockchain.com hash rate API (free)Backtest since Jan 2024 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$9,020

Jan 24Today

Live data collecting — check back soon

+8.3%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

36.8%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 2 months)?

19 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2024. Frequency: ~1 every 2 months.

-33%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. +8% vs HODL +473%. Previous claim -9.8% was pessimistic but the real story is still 'massively underperforms HODL'. 28 trades. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

🐝

The Hive Mind

Follows Reddit sentiment

BacktestBusted

BTCFeb 2025~1 every 4 months

🐝 GDELT social data + Reddit JSON API (both free)Backtest since Feb 2025 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$9,869.89

Feb 25Today

+2.6%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

50%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 4 months)?

4 completed round-trip trades since Feb 2025. Frequency: ~1 every 4 months.

-28.5%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

38%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. +2.6% vs HODL +473%. Basically flat. 4 trades from Reddit sentiment. No tradeable edge. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

🌪️

The Volatility Trader

Only trades when volatility explodes — bigger swings, bigger profits

BacktestBusted

BTCMar 2020~1/month

🌪️ BTC daily OHLCV + ATR volatility (free)Backtest since Mar 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$11,915.56

Mar 20Today

-2.3%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

62.5%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1/month)?

72 completed round-trip trades since Mar 2020. Frequency: ~1/month.

-52.5%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. LOSES money: -2.3%. Previous claim +19.2% was wrong (wrong window). 91 trades chewed through fees. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

🌀

The Fibonacci Bot

Sacred geometry or trader astrology? We tested it.

BacktestBusted

BTCMar 2020~1 every 5 months

🌀 Fibonacci retracement from daily swing pointsBacktest since Mar 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$25,551.28

Mar 20Today

-4.3%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

80%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 5 months)?

15 completed round-trip trades since Mar 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 5 months.

-77.3%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. LOSES money: -4.3% over 8y. Previous claim +155% was dramatically inflated. Fibonacci levels do not produce an edge on BTC. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

🔊

The Volume Spike

Buys when volume explodes and price dips — Wyckoff accumulation

BacktestBusted

BTCMar 2020~1 every 2 months

🔊 BTC daily volume + price (CryptoCompare, free)Backtest since Mar 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$7,239.4

Mar 20Today

-9.2%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

48.6%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 2 months)?

37 completed round-trip trades since Mar 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 2 months.

-53.6%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

100%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. Confirmed failure. -9.2% over 8y. Previous claim -27.6% was more pessimistic; real is slightly better but still unprofitable. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

🌊

The Calm Before Storm

Buys when volatility is at its lowest — the calm before the explosion

BacktestBusted

BTCJun 2020~1 every 4 months

🌊 ATR volatility percentile (calculated locally)Backtest since Jun 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$10,014.21

Jun 20Today

-16.3%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

44.4%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 4 months)?

18 completed round-trip trades since Jun 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 4 months.

-53.6%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

78%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. LOSES money: -16.3%. Previous claim +0.1% (breakeven) was wrong. Low-vol periods don't predict returns. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

🥧

The Pi Bot

Trading with mathematical constants. The ultimate placebo.

BacktestBusted

BTCJan 2020~1 every 2 months

🥧 Mathematical constants in price digits (local calculation)Backtest since Jan 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$7,310.92

Jan 20Today

-20.3%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

51%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 2 months)?

49 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 2 months.

-34.2%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

17%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. -20% over 8y. Cycle-top indicator didn't hold up. Previous claim -27% was close. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

⚡

The Scalper

Buys every dip, sells every bounce. Speed kills.

BacktestBusted

BTCJan 2020~1 every 2 weeks

📊 BTC daily prices (CryptoCompare, free)Backtest since Jan 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$12,999.79

Jan 20Today

-34.4%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

68.9%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

177

Trades (~1 every 2 weeks)?

177 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 2 weeks.

-68.1%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. LOSES money: -34%. Previous claim +30% was dramatically wrong. High-frequency scalping on BTC doesn't work — fees destroy the edge. 258 trades. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

📅

The Weekender

Monday buy, Friday sell. Every week.

BacktestBusted

BTCJan 2020~1 every 2 weeks

⏰ Calendar-based (no external data)Backtest since Jan 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$13,005.96

Jan 20Today

-46%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

51.5%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

328

Trades (~1 every 2 weeks)?

328 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 2 weeks.

-76.6%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. LOSES money: -46%. Previous claim +30% was DRAMATICALLY wrong. Monday-Friday rotation pattern doesn't exist on BTC. 433 trades — huge fee bleed. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

↔️

The Divergence Bot

When price and sentiment disagree, something is about to happen

BacktestBusted

BTCJan 2024~1 every 7 months

↔️ F&G API + price divergence (free)Backtest since Jan 2024 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$9,150

Jan 24Today

Live data collecting — check back soon

-50.7%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

50%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 7 months)?

4 completed round-trip trades since Jan 2024. Frequency: ~1 every 7 months.

-58.8%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

60%

Robust?

Parameter robustness: how many parameter variants are profitable. 100% = works with any setting (robust). Below 40% = only works with one specific tuning (fragile).

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. LOSES money: -51%. Previous claim -8.5% was far too optimistic. 21 trades. Sentiment divergence not tradeable on BTC. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

📊

The VWAP Bot

Buys below the 20-day average, sells above

BacktestBusted

BTCFeb 2020~1 every 2 months

📊 BTC daily prices (CryptoCompare, free)Backtest since Feb 2020 · Live since Apr 2026

$10k →$8,746.87

Feb 20Today

-77.3%

Return?

Total profit or loss since the bot started, as a percentage of the initial $10,000.

71.9%

Win Rate?

Percentage of trades that were profitable. 50% means half the trades made money.

Trades (~1 every 2 months)?

57 completed round-trip trades since Feb 2020. Frequency: ~1 every 2 months.

-86.7%

Max DD?

Maximum Drawdown: the worst peak-to-trough decline. If this is -15%, the portfolio dropped 15% from its highest point before recovering.

Audit 2026-04-18 — 8-year backtest (2018-2026) against the /methodology 3-test stack. WORST PERFORMER. -77% over 8y (previously claimed -12.5% — real is 6x worse). 72 trades. VWAP mean-reversion completely broken on trending asset. Max drawdown calculation in the lab backtester is unreliable (only tracks cash periods, not open positions). We show real final returns; DD will be recomputed when the backtester is fixed.

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Our live trading bots

7 bots currently running (real or paper)

The research here informs what we actually trade. The Watchdog on real capital, plus six paper-traded strategies: Tactician 2.0, Rotator, Tri-Rotator, Hedge Hopper, Genius, Alpha Hunter. Tier-labeled, walk-forward testedA backtest method: we split the historical data into 3 independent time windows and check whether the strategy beats HODL in each one separately. Catches strategies that only work in one specific market regime., honest about what's live.

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