12 strategies · v2.2 score framework · 2026-05-05
Systems beat gut feeling.
Twelve strategies under v2.2. One on real money, eleven paper-tracked. Pick a tier below.
Every backtest on this site is a bet on regime continuity. We test on the past — the future is a regime draw we haven't fully observed. Walk-forward catches what we've seen; it cannot catch what hasn't happened yet. Why this matters →
Tier 1 — Real-Money-Eligible(4)
Cleared the v2.2 multi-benchmark + score framework. One bot (Watchdog) currently trades real capital; the rest are paper-tracking until ≥6 months of forward proof.
Tier 2 — Concept-Validated, Paper-Track(4)
Genuine signal under T7 random-baseline, but a v2.2 hard-floor or fragility flag caps the tier ceiling. Useful as portfolio sleeves, not standalone Tier 1 alpha.
Tier 3 — Defensive Role Only(3)
Failed walk-forward against the primary benchmark, but drawdown protection or per-trade structure is genuine. Treat as a sleeve, not standalone alpha.
Untested by Methodology(1)
The 7-test suite structurally doesn't apply (LLM-driven event strategies). Validation deferred until live data accumulates enough to be meaningful.
10 Bots, 1 System
The ten bots aren't random. Each covers a different asset, signal, or risk level. The Surfer (regime-aware grid bot) just joined as bot #2. Four momentum bots run in parallel — backtest predicts Tactician 2.0 underperforms; live data verifies. Scout retired earlier.
Its cycle filter determines the base position. This one decision is responsible for 80% of overall performance. Few decisions, but the right ones.
Regime-aware grid bot. SMA20 vs SMA100 +2% rule: confirmed bull → just hold BTC; chop or bear → run grid (30% BTC / 70% USDT). Backtest 2.7y BTC: +228% vs HODL +159% with smaller drawdown (-33% vs -50%). Cross-validated on 4.8y ETH (incl. 2022 bear). First hybrid bot in the lineup — earned its slot via simulated alpha. Live paper-tracking starts today.
M-30 momentum + vol-scaled position sizing (target 60% portfolio vol). Backtest 8y: +1,126% vs HODL +603%, MaxDD -58%. Multi-metric panel ranks it last among the three momentum bots — kept live as a 45-day Live-vs-Backtest verification experiment.
Cross-asset momentum: every day compares 21-day momentum on BTC vs ETH and holds the stronger one (cash if both negative). About 47 rotations per year. Backtest 2018-2026: +3,020% vs BTC HODL +621%. Walk-Forward 3/3 windows beat HODL across a robust parameter plateau.
Three-asset momentum: BTC vs ETH vs SOL on 30-day lookback. Holds whichever has strongest positive momentum, cash if all three are negative. About 50 rotations per year. Backtest 2020-2026 (5.7 years, SOL data limit): +34,929% vs BTC HODL ~+901%. Walk-Forward 2/3, plateau across all lookbacks 10-30. Paper-traded. Caveat: single-cycle window + SOL outage tail-risk — monitored particularly closely.
Cross-asset momentum outside crypto: BTC vs GDX (Gold Miners ETF) on 40-day lookback. Captures the mismatch between crypto cycles and gold cycles (2022 crypto winter = 2022-2024 gold run). Backtest 2018-2026 (5.7 years): +5,532% vs BTC HODL +610%, MaxDD only -45%. Walk-Forward 3/3 windows beat HODL, robust plateau across lookbacks 10-90. Caveat: only one rotation cycle tested — monitored as 45-day Live-vs-Backtest experiment.
Textbook RSI (buy<30, sell>70) loses money on BTC — we documented it. The Contrarian flips it entirely: BUY above RSI 70 (the crowd's exhaustion = our momentum), SELL below 30 (the crowd's dip = our falling knife). 8-year backtest: +711% vs BTC HODL +473%, drawdown -64% vs -77%. 11 trades in 8 years. Paper-traded since today.
Completely uncorrelated to Bitcoin. While the BTC bots cover the Bitcoin market, The Genius scans 22 DeFi protocols for governance events. Currently running on Bybit testnet — virtual money, real execution. Graduates to real capital after 50+ testnet trades confirm the backtest.
The Sentry runs DeFi crowd-fade plus governance frontrun
Sister bot to The Genius. Runs two ideas in parallel: bet against the crowd when too many traders pile on one side, and follow the money when it suddenly flows into a DeFi protocol. Watches 12 well-known DeFi tokens every 15 minutes. First test on 3 years of data: one of the two ideas works very well, the other modestly — both run together. Paper-traded for 60-90 days alongside The Genius; whichever performs better in live data graduates.
The Alpha Hunter extends the system into US stocks
A completely independent return stream. Every month it rebalances into the 10 US stocks with the strongest 12-month momentum. In backtesting (2019-2026, out-of-sample, costs included): +742% vs S&P 500 +212%. Paper-traded portfolio, not real capital.
The result: Ten independent return sources across crypto, precious metals, and US stocks. The Surfer (regime-aware grid bot) is the latest addition — first hybrid bot that earned its slot via simulated alpha. Four momentum bots (Tactician 2.0, Rotator, Tri-Rotator, Hedge Hopper) run in parallel for 45-day Live-vs-Backtest verification — backtest predicts Tactician underperforms its rotation siblings; live data confirms or contradicts. Scout retired earlier. See methodology and post-mortems.
What does The Watchdog say right now?
Live signal, updated daily
Our radar currently says:
Stay away from Bitcoin.
For 19 days in cash
3 of 3 conditions not met. All 3 must show Yes for the bot to buy.
3 independent filters · 6 years of backtest data · No gut feeling
Did this confluence call cycle tops and bottoms? Hover any day from 2021 to today.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a trading bot?
A program that automatically buys and sells based on fixed rules. No human presses the button. The bot decides based on data and executes the trade itself.
How exactly do the bots work?
All bots are paper-tracking under the v2.1 framework adopted 2026-04-28. Full rules are open on each bot's article page — read and replicate. Real-money graduation requires ≥6 months of forward-validated proof (rolling 12-month live beat-rate vs S&P, MaxDD bounded, Sharpe stability) — first eligibility ~2026-10-28.
Can I follow the signals?
Yes. Newsletter subscribers get every signal change across all 10 running bots by email (BTC cycle filter, regime-aware grid harvester, BTC momentum + risk-parity sizing, BTC/ETH rotation, BTC/ETH/SOL rotation, BTC/GDX cross-asset rotation, US stock momentum, DeFi governance, contrarian crowd-fade). You decide what to do with it.
How much money is in the bots?
Zero — all 10 bots are paper-tracking with $10,000 virtual capital each (Watchdog historical $6,000) under the all-paper policy adopted 2026-04-28. The previous Watchdog real-money allocation was paused 2026-04-22 and the policy formally adopted 6 days later when the v2.1 multi-benchmark recompute showed no bot meets Tier 1 strict + forward-validated criteria. Scout was retired 2026-04-17 after multi-metric analysis — see /post-mortems.
Are the backtest numbers realistic?
Every number is based on 6 years of real historical data. Including fees, slippage, and realistic execution. Still: backtests don't guarantee future results.
What about bots that failed?
All documented on our post-mortems page. Scout was downgraded from live to BACKTEST-only when full-period numbers showed it loses to HODL. Alpha Hunter Light was retired the day it launched. The Watchdog+Tactician combinations (Options B and C) both failed walk-forward validation. See the full list →
We currently run 10 live bots — all paper-tracking.
Zero on real capital as of 2026-04-28. All 10 bots are paper-tracking with $10,000 virtual capital each (Watchdog: historical $6,000). Under the v2.1 multi-benchmark framework adopted today, no bot graduates to real money until ≥6 months of forward-validated proof. The Watchdog real-money allocation was paused 2026-04-22 and the policy formally adopted 6 days later. First graduation eligibility ~2026-10-28.
Every bot's status, equity curve, and signals are visible above. Newsletter subscribers get every signal change by email.
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