Calculator

Crash Recovery Calculator

Bitcoin drops 50%? Then it needs to rise 100%. Not 50%. A hundred. Drag the slider and see for yourself.

Bitcoin drops by...

-50%

-5%-50%-95%

Bitcoin then needs to rise by...

+100%

...just to get back to ±0. No profit. Just break-even.

-50%
+100%

Loss → Required recovery

LossRecovery neededPain level
-10%+11%😐 Manageable
-20%+25%😐 Manageable
-30%+43%😰 Painful
-40%+67%😰 Painful
-50%+100%😰 Painful
-60%+150%🫠 Brutal
-70%+233%🫠 Brutal
-80%+400%🫠 Brutal
-90%+900%💀 Nearly impossible
-95%+1900%💀 Nearly impossible

Historical Bitcoin crashes

YearFrom → ToCrashNeeded for break-even
2011$32 → $2-94%~1'467%
2014$1'100 → $170-85%~567%
2018$19'700 → $3'200-84%~516%
2022$69'000 → $15'500-78%~345%

Bitcoin recovered every single time — but it took 1-3 years. Those who sold at -80% are still waiting.

Avoid crashes instead of recovering from them?

Our bot moves to cash before the crash hits. Not perfect — but better than sitting through -78%.

Current signalWhy “Buy the Dip” doesn't work
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